Thursday, December 22, 2011
Spanish tax office delivers 300,000 nasty letters
Thursday, December 15, 2011
Would you prefer to live in an Indian slum or Middlesbrough?
My first flat in London (Hampstead 1994) didn’t cost that much more than 50k and my first flat in Spain (Valencia 1999) cost considerably less. Even now a quick search reveals over 600 properties in and around Middlesbrough for £50,000 or less.
What’s going on? Aren’t Indian slum dwellers among the poorest and most wretched people in the world? Didn’t I see kids in the movie swimming in human excrement? Less of that sort of thing in Boro than there used to be.
The Sky article gave part of the answer to the riddle of the pricey shacks: the slums are not quite the ramshackle hellholes that you might think. The Dharavi slum is a highly organized, functioning community with thriving businesses and properties that have housed the same families for generations. Over time the authorities have recognized their legitimacy and hooked up utilities. Most of all it is very close to the commercial heart of Mumbai (“location, location, location”).
But nevertheless India is a poor country despite rapid growth recently. How can people afford to bid up slum dwellings to such levels? The average wage is so low that Reebok recently announced that it was planning to sell a pair of trainers for $1 to get into the market. That does not suggest that India’s boom has yet created enough spending power to justify slum dwellings at UK prices.
The real explanation may lie in recent Indian interest policy. Rates have been as low as 3% and even now, with inflation needing to be reined in, Indian interest rates are only 7%. As is usually the case with these amazing property price stories, the root cause is lax monetary policy. We in Britain have seen such house price booms so many times before; they make everyone from the Finance Minister to the shack owner feel like they are economic geniuses until they end, as they always do, in tears and a painful bust.
Thursday, December 8, 2011
Euro doubters are being proved doubly right
It seems absurd now but a decade or so the UK was very close to joining the Euro. Tony Blair’s Labour government, popular and trusted (yes, it was a long time ago), was pushing for it and only some stubborn resistance from Gordon Brown kept Britain out.
One of the key “pro” arguments was that interest rates would be lower. The pro camp was obviously hoping to sell the Euro with a bribe of lower mortgage rates. I remember thinking at the time that this was a hollow and short-sighted argument.
Lower interest rates are not a good thing necessarily. Interest rates need to be high enough to balance saving and spending. Set too low and the risk is of unsustainable booms and horrible busts.
The euro-sceptics pointed out that a single interest rate for Europe would be bound to leave some parts too high or too low rates with nasty consequences. Events have proved the doubters right of course but there is more to the story.
The arguments against joining were not wholly economic. Indeed the dangerous economic consequences of joining were a side issue for most opponents who feared the political logic more: the Euro was an irrevocable step towards a European superstate which rendered national governments almost powerless on the things that matter.
Pro-Euro campaigners either played down the loss of sovereignty as scare-mongering or argued that it would be a good trade off – slough off your little-Britain hang ups and reap the economic benefits, they said.
Now the Eurozone threatens implosion that position looks ridiculous: all 17 members face the prospect of ruin and disaster unless they join together in a fiscal union. Exactly what the Euro’s opponents predicted and the Euro-enthusiasts perhaps secretly hoped for.
What will this Eurozone superstate look like, if indeed it gets off the ground? Again you don’t need a crystal ball to see the shape of things to come. It will be hugely wasteful of public money, highly bureaucratic, damaging to business and most of all grossly undemocratic.
The citizens of the Eurozone must already feel like they are helpless onlookers watching their political elites flounder in the crisis that they themselves created. They can now look forward to permanent Euro hell as the price for preventing economic meltdown.
From our website: A guide to Spain's autonomo system