Could Spain "do a Cyprus" and raid Spanish bank accounts?

Last year I posted "Are Spanish bank accounts safe?" but its assessment of the risks is now out of date because of the crisis in Cyprus.

Could Spain also start confiscating money from bank deposits in the country?

Will Spanish bank customers be effectively be blocked from accessing their accounts or moving money in  a crisis?

Is the €100,000 deposit guarantee offered on Spanish banks safe?  It didn't count for much in Spain where even tiny accounts were raided by the government and are now locked.

The Spanish government have point-blank denied there is the remotest chance of this happening in Spain and there is certainly no need to panic.

On an optimistic reading of current events you would say that Spain has already sorted out its bank recapitalisation and, even if a further bailout were needed, would learn from the Cyprus episode and not take a slice of its citizens' cash to do it.

However the crisis is a stark reminder of three worrying points for anyone with Spanish assets:

- the Eurozone crisis is still very much unresolved and will keep coming back in nasty and unpredictable ways
- the real powers that be, such as the IMF and Germany, carry all the clout and will happily trample all over Spanish national interests when there is a risk to their money
- governments are getting desperate and no liberty is too sacred to be trampled on.

I never thought I would see a European country locking its people away from their own money, but its part of pattern of governments getting increasingly aggressive and intrusive in attempts to raise cash.  In Spain we have already seen the forced declaration of foreign assets which surely is the forerunner of more punitive taxes on them.

However some of the recent reports of Spain already planning a raid on deposits is alarmist (example - Cyprus copycats: NZ and Spain).  They refer to the "moderado" levy which is being introduced at 0% (!) initially but will rise to something like 0.1-0.2%.  The key point though is that this is a pre-announced tax on the banks themselves and not a preemptive raid on deposits of their customers.

Call me naive but I don't think the "moderado" and the Cyprus levy are comparable and there is little likelihood of it mutating into a serious government bank account attack.  Not to say that the government will not get their hands on their people's cash in other ways of course - ever higher taxes on spending and income or a big increase in the wealth tax that was brought back recently.

All in all though I would say it is unlikely that the Spanish government will "do a Cyprus".  Most likely nothing will happen so long as the government debt crisis doesn't start flashing red again.  If that happens, and I think it probably will because the Spanish economy can't survive the measures announced last year to cut the deficit, then all bets are off and the fears I spoke about in my original article may be realised.

From our website:  Autonomo Guide

EU withdrawal is losing its appeal

I have been a Eurosceptic for decades so it might seem strange, with an in-out referendum promised and anti-EU sentiment at an all time high, I am cooling on the idea of a UK exit.

Don't get me wrong, I have not suddenly learned to love Brussels.

Just last week, the British government was overruled on bankers' bonuses.  Regardless of what you think about our friends in the City, the effects of this move will overwhelmingly be felt in Britain and yet we have no right to say no.

The Eurozone shambles has reduced pro-European voices to a whisper and not just in Britain.  Any notions of being better off "at the heart of Europe" are now widely derided as those who warned about the single currency are  completely vindicated (Euro doubters are being proved doubly right).

Consequently the Europhiles have adopted fear tactics.  Fear of lost trade, jobs and inward investment.  Fear of declining influence and isolation. Fear of retribution from Brussels, Berlin and Paris.

I would liken the situation now to a spousal abuse victim finally plucking up courage to leave her husband.

Britain has been marginalised, overruled and bullied by the EU for a long time but only now, when the resolve to do something about it has hardened, do the doubts creep in...

She thinks: "What will I do for money?", We think: "who will we trade with?"

She worries: "What if he comes after me?". We fear regulatory retaliation.

She worries:"What will our friends say?".  Will Obama still take the PM's calls?

The temptation is to dismiss the Europhile fear-mongering and marginalise the downside of leaving the EU.  That would be a mistake because some of the issues are genuine and could easily turn a referendum in favour of remaining in the EU.

It is obviously true that leaving the EU will have downsides. Yes we will lose a measure of influence in the world and particularly in trade negotiations.  Of course our spurned partners (especially France) may try and put the knife in and, for example, stack the regulatory cards against the City of London.  Multinationals will certainly be worried about the security of access to the giant, albeit, shrinking market across the Channel.

None of this means that the UK should just lump it in the EU, like the victim who keeps giving their abuser another chance.  And that old reform-it-from-within line is starting to sound pretty lame.  The Eurozone countries have their own existential struggle going on and are not going to listen  to Britain however polite and obedient we are.

Besides some of the fears can be dealt with by securing guarantees in exit negotiations which could take years and in which we hold some cards, a big trade deficit prime among them.

However to make a case for withdrawal, EU opponents must do more than try and talk away the negatives. They must present a positive case for being a free and independent country once again.  How would we use that room for manoeuvre?

Theoretically the UK could reap massive economic and social advantage from being fully sovereign again: a more rational immigration policy, a massive reduction in red tape and converting saved budget contributions into tax cuts aimed at growth.

But there is a big difference between being offered an opportunity and taking it.  Given that the two main British parties are both firmly wedded to the high spending, high taxing, bank bashing, welfarist, interventionist consensus that currently prevails, EU withdrawal would be unlikely to usher in a new era of economic liberal radicalism.

And without hope of turning into the Hong Kong of Europe, why take the risk of leaving?

The best quote I ever read about withdrawal was from a Europhile who said "Britain has a competitiveness problem not a Europe problem".   Germany out-exports us handily under exactly the same regime of EU regulation.

Much as you might loathe the EU, without serious commitment to reform Britain is in deep trouble whether it leaves or not.


From our website:   Spanish non resident tax

And winner of the worst government policy of the year is . . .

There have been plenty of contenders for the year’s worst (UK) government policy.  The coalition seems to have inherited Labour’s desire to meddle, fiddle and tweak and the uneasy marriage of Lib Dem lefties and nominally right wing Tories has been a recipe for fudge and confusion. 

This has led to a bumper crop of terrible policies including:

-          George Osborne’s “tax cuts for employment rights” policy was designed to please right wingers but was just another politician’s wheeze which backfired at the taxpayer’s expense (and confirmed that George’s scary similarity with Gordon – see “Oh No it’s Geor-don!”);

-          Ed Davey’s horrible energy bill which slaps an extra £100 onto fuel bills for a hotchpotch of measures which will damage the UK economy but do nothing to “combat climate change”.  In a world where India and China are building new coal-fired stations every week, the UK messing around with wind farms and subsidising loft insulation is an expensive irrelevance.  Davey’s bald-faced assertion that his measures will eventually reduce bills by £94 (compared to what they would have been without the bill) was political lie of the year ;

-          Separately the £2bn “climate aid” pledge to assist with climate change projects in the developing world had massive-waste-of-money written all over it;

-          The way the Treasury rowed back on the child benefit cuts for rich people was also depressing.   The original cut, announced last year, was the right thing to do but was badly botched from the start, penalising single-wage households.  The efforts to undo the damage have watered down the savings and added another huge layer of complexity to the tax system (see this if you don’t believe me see Couples face “who buys toys” quiz by taxman to get a flavour of the madness);

-          Kicking Heathrow airport expansion into the long grass (yet again) while simultaneously making UK air passenger tax the highest in the world, was a great example of political expediency trumping the long term economic interest of the country; and

-          Getting control over Labour’s crazy “open door / open wallets” immigration policy is important but the coalition have set an arbitrary target of limiting non-EU immigration and Theresa May is trying to reach it by clamping down on students from abroad and skilled workers business needs.  Leaving the EU and restricting welfare payments to citizens who have earned it would be a better bet (see EU’s migrant rules prove the referendum case).

So what could be worse than this lot?  Well my nomination as worst government policy of the year is Minimum Alcohol Pricing.  It’s at the White Paper stage now so not law but it will be soon, particularly given that the PM has thrown his weight behind it (so we can’t blame the Lib Dems for this one).  It may not be the policy with the most serious bad consequences but it is truly awful for lots of reasons which I describe here:  Minimum alcohol price: Cameron’s dodgy dossier

From our website:  Do you need to submit a Spanish tax return?

EU's migrant rules prove the referendum case

So Scotland is to get an independence referendum to be held in 2014.  For people like me, who want a referendum on Britain's (England's?) place in Europe, the wait goes.

But the case for EU withdrawal or radical renegotiation is growing by the day.

Take last week's news that the EU is trying to force the UK government to pay benefits, including pensions, to any EU citizen who applies for them.  The EU wants to stop Britain applying its "habitual resident test" to ensure that foreign claimants are genuinely settled in the UK and have paid taxes here.

I think you would be hard-pressed to find more than 2% of the British electorate who would support paying benefits out to foreigners who haven't contributed anything to the country beforehand.  But our democratically-elected government is being forced to do so by the European Commissioner for Social Affairs, an unelected Hungarian who we have no influence over whatsoever.

And this is not some minor irritant.  Control of public spending, given the size of the deficit and the challenge of funding growing numbers of retirees, is crucial if the UK economy is to survive never mind thrive.

The EU would argue that they are sticking up for the rights of immigrants but the best way to ensure that is to have clear, fair and properly enforced rules to reassure the host country's citizens that they are not being taken advantage of.

A group of Tory MPs recently proposed a scheme where UK immigrants would earn their rights to benefits, housing and healthcare over time by working and paying taxes.  They might have added that the immigrant would lose these rights (and ultimately their right to reside in Britain) if they committed any crime.

This might seem tough but it would transform the immigration debate overnight.  The suspicion that immigrant communities are a drain would lift.  Now the very word "immigrant" suggests a burden and a problem but perceptions can quickly change with some clear rules.

Immigration should be a massive plus for Britain.  Not just the cultural vibrancy it brings but hard economic benefits - an improved dependency (worker to non-worker) ratio, a better workforce for our companies and lots of imported skills, capital and connections.

A scheme where residency rights for all immigrants, both EU and non-EU, were dependent on contributing to the system and staying on the right side of the law would ensure that immigration delivers these gains and regains popular trust.

But the EU wants us to go in the opposite direction which will further undermine perceptions of immigrants and make mugs out of honest taxpayers.  I wish it was a Referendum on Europe we were getting ready for in 2014.

The People's Pledge - EU Referendum Campaign



From the website:  Service for Spanish autonomos

Euro doubters are being proved doubly right

It seems absurd now but a decade or so the UK was very close to joining the Euro. Tony Blair’s Labour government, popular and trusted (yes, it was a long time ago), was pushing for it and only some stubborn resistance from Gordon Brown kept Britain out.

One of the key “pro” arguments was that interest rates would be lower. The pro camp was obviously hoping to sell the Euro with a bribe of lower mortgage rates. I remember thinking at the time that this was a hollow and short-sighted argument.

Lower interest rates are not a good thing necessarily. Interest rates need to be high enough to balance saving and spending. Set too low and the risk is of unsustainable booms and horrible busts.

The euro-sceptics pointed out that a single interest rate for Europe would be bound to leave some parts too high or too low rates with nasty consequences. Events have proved the doubters right of course but there is more to the story.

The arguments against joining were not wholly economic. Indeed the dangerous economic consequences of joining were a side issue for most opponents who feared the political logic more: the Euro was an irrevocable step towards a European superstate which rendered national governments almost powerless on the things that matter.

Pro-Euro campaigners either played down the loss of sovereignty as scare-mongering or argued that it would be a good trade off – slough off your little-Britain hang ups and reap the economic benefits, they said.

Now the Eurozone threatens implosion that position looks ridiculous: all 17 members face the prospect of ruin and disaster unless they join together in a fiscal union. Exactly what the Euro’s opponents predicted and the Euro-enthusiasts perhaps secretly hoped for.

What will this Eurozone superstate look like, if indeed it gets off the ground? Again you don’t need a crystal ball to see the shape of things to come. It will be hugely wasteful of public money, highly bureaucratic, damaging to business and most of all grossly undemocratic.

The citizens of the Eurozone must already feel like they are helpless onlookers watching their political elites flounder in the crisis that they themselves created. They can now look forward to permanent Euro hell as the price for preventing economic meltdown.

From our website: A guide to Spain's autonomo system

Is there any point to the Spanish Elections?

Spain goes to the polls on Sunday to elect a new government and, yes, my question is facetious. Of course the elections are not pointless; no democratic election ever is. Apart from anything the people will get their chance to pass judgment on the record of Prime Minister Zapatero and his Socialists. Polls point to a big thumbs down and the election of the PP and their leader Mariano Rajoy who has tried and failed to win twice before.

But will it make much difference whatever happens? Spain is so close to the eye of the Eurozone storm that any new government will be powerless against the combined forces of the bond markets and the Eurozone. The PP are talking tough about bank reforms (which will surely send Spanish property prices down further – How the bailout could send Spanish property crashing) and labour market reform but it will be Germany and the ECB that decides Spain’s fate.

Look at the way that Berlusconi was finally forced from power. The Italians are well rid of him but it took Eurozone threats to do the job. It is notable that the new Italian government contains not a single elected minister.

Over in Greece the call for a referendum to get popular support for austerity measures was taken as a “breach of trust” by France and Germany; Papandreou was kicked out and Greece was effectively blackmailed into cancelling the vote.

I don’t subscribe to the theory that the Southern European countries are being drawn into a German super state but they certainly have lost control of their destiny. Either Spain and the others will be rescued by Germany or it will be forced to crash out of the Euro. It’s that simple and Sunday’s vote will not change a thing.

Latest article: Spanish holiday property UK and Spain tax considerations

Now IS the time for a referendum on Europe

Over 100,000 signatures collected by volunteer groups and some brave Conservative MPs have forced a vote in Parliament over UK membership of the EU. All the main party leaders are forcing their MPs to vote against a referendum. Strange bed-fellows Cameron and Miliband are effectively saying the same thing: now’s not the time.

They are wrong. It’s the perfect time for the British people to be given a say on the EU. After all they have not been consulted for over 35 years. They have never had the chance to say whether they want to be part of what the EU has grown into since those seemingly innocuous origins of six countries in a Common Market.

Since then, with barely a nod to democratic process, the EU has grown into a 27 state behemoth that reaches into every legislative area, slaps down our courts and parliament, dictates who we can let in to the country and claims to speak for us in the world.

It also soaks up enormous sums of money, a net £12 billion of which comes from the UK taxpayer. As we wrestle with a massive fiscal deficit, now is most definitely the time to consider whether we can afford to pay this massive subsidy to our neighbours and debate what we get in return.

Many other economic issues are tied up with the EU from the burden of regulation on industry to the effects of unchecked immigration and the impact of EU schemes to undermine the City. Far from a referendum being a distraction in a time of economic crisis, it may be a pre-requisite of recovery. We should at least be able to debate the arguments rather than remain permanently shackled to the Euro project which has never looked so tarnished and dysfunctional.

Some argue that the sovereign debt crisis should be given priority at the moment and that a referendum is an irrelevance we could do without. On the contrary, the Euro crisis is the most compelling reason for a debate on continued membership. For one thing it has undermined one of the principal claims of the Euro-enthusiasts: that Europe does things better and we would be better off inside the club.

Also, however the crisis is resolved, it is sure to presage enormous changes in the way the euro area and EU are run. We deserve to be consulted before the UK government has to decide how to respond to the crucial choices that are bound to result.

Fundamentally the Euro crisis has exposed the dearth of democratic legitimacy in the rotten core of Europe. The political elites have pushed the project along hard and fast ignoring popular doubts and look what a mess has resulted. Just think of how the German electorate must think about their politicians’ promises about no bail outs and pooled debt.

With the sole exception of the Euro and one or two opt-outs, UK governments have gone along with the lot and have never put the issues to the people. Now is the time to remove that stain on our democratic heritage and have a referendum on this vital topic.

If you feel the same way you can make your voice heard (in a small way!) by signing the People's Pledge here.

On our website this week Spain is bringing back the wealth tax

Spain slams the door on Romanian immigrants

In a surprise move last week the EU said it would allow Spain to restrict the number of job-seeking immigrants from Romania. This is the first time any EU country has sought to keep out workers from another EU country since Europe introduced an open borders policy. This is hardly "Fortress Spain" - the nearly 900,000 Romanians already in the country will be unaffected and the restrictions will last only until 2012. Is Spain right to take this step? Should Britain follow?

The justification given for the move is that the number of Romanians "was distorting the labour market". Spain's unemployment rate is now 21% and its job market cannot supply enough jobs for locals never mind the 5 million foreigners in the country legally plus who knows how many illegally. Already 30% of the Romanians in Spain are unemployed.

Sounds like an open and shut case but there is more to it. During the boom years immigrants were welcomed with open arms by the construction and agricultural sectors particularly when they were doing jobs Spanish nationals were turning their noses up at. They were not exactly "stealing" Spanish jobs. Also there is more than a hint of scapegoating about the move. Spanish unemployment has always been high because of a dysfunctional system which discourages legal job creation and because of the disastrous consequences of joining the euro, not because immigrants came to make an honest living during the boom.

While I think it is a classic case of “too little too late” I think Spain is right to seek to limit the inflow of Romanian jobseekers. By all accounts the benefit system is very sketchy and ungenerous in Romania and wages for those in work very low. That explains why so many are prepared to travel throughout Europe in search of a better deal but it is hardly fair to local jobseekers in countries where jobs are scarce anyway. And Spain has no right to send back any surplus migrant workers so as their economy has soured they have been left with hundreds of thousands of foreigners on benefits at a time when they are under massive pressure to reduce state spending.

As for Britain similar questions have been asked for years about how this free movement of labour through the EU is supposed to work when some countries have much more generous welfare systems and more open labour markets than others. The result for the UK has been that almost all jobs created in the last decade have gone to foreigners, mainly Eastern Europeans, and there has been a massive strain on public services and housing.

But the answer isn’t to blame immigrants or necessarily to place limits on their numbers particularly when they are often taking up jobs that locals will not do. Root and branch reform of the benefits system should come first, particularly the areas that are most abused and reduce the willingness of people to work, like housing benefit and incapacity benefits.

From our website: Spanish non resident tax