Thursday, December 22, 2011
Spanish tax office delivers 300,000 nasty letters
Thursday, December 15, 2011
Would you prefer to live in an Indian slum or Middlesbrough?
My first flat in London (Hampstead 1994) didn’t cost that much more than 50k and my first flat in Spain (Valencia 1999) cost considerably less. Even now a quick search reveals over 600 properties in and around Middlesbrough for £50,000 or less.
What’s going on? Aren’t Indian slum dwellers among the poorest and most wretched people in the world? Didn’t I see kids in the movie swimming in human excrement? Less of that sort of thing in Boro than there used to be.
The Sky article gave part of the answer to the riddle of the pricey shacks: the slums are not quite the ramshackle hellholes that you might think. The Dharavi slum is a highly organized, functioning community with thriving businesses and properties that have housed the same families for generations. Over time the authorities have recognized their legitimacy and hooked up utilities. Most of all it is very close to the commercial heart of Mumbai (“location, location, location”).
But nevertheless India is a poor country despite rapid growth recently. How can people afford to bid up slum dwellings to such levels? The average wage is so low that Reebok recently announced that it was planning to sell a pair of trainers for $1 to get into the market. That does not suggest that India’s boom has yet created enough spending power to justify slum dwellings at UK prices.
The real explanation may lie in recent Indian interest policy. Rates have been as low as 3% and even now, with inflation needing to be reined in, Indian interest rates are only 7%. As is usually the case with these amazing property price stories, the root cause is lax monetary policy. We in Britain have seen such house price booms so many times before; they make everyone from the Finance Minister to the shack owner feel like they are economic geniuses until they end, as they always do, in tears and a painful bust.
Thursday, December 8, 2011
Euro doubters are being proved doubly right
It seems absurd now but a decade or so the UK was very close to joining the Euro. Tony Blair’s Labour government, popular and trusted (yes, it was a long time ago), was pushing for it and only some stubborn resistance from Gordon Brown kept Britain out.
One of the key “pro” arguments was that interest rates would be lower. The pro camp was obviously hoping to sell the Euro with a bribe of lower mortgage rates. I remember thinking at the time that this was a hollow and short-sighted argument.
Lower interest rates are not a good thing necessarily. Interest rates need to be high enough to balance saving and spending. Set too low and the risk is of unsustainable booms and horrible busts.
The euro-sceptics pointed out that a single interest rate for Europe would be bound to leave some parts too high or too low rates with nasty consequences. Events have proved the doubters right of course but there is more to the story.
The arguments against joining were not wholly economic. Indeed the dangerous economic consequences of joining were a side issue for most opponents who feared the political logic more: the Euro was an irrevocable step towards a European superstate which rendered national governments almost powerless on the things that matter.
Pro-Euro campaigners either played down the loss of sovereignty as scare-mongering or argued that it would be a good trade off – slough off your little-Britain hang ups and reap the economic benefits, they said.
Now the Eurozone threatens implosion that position looks ridiculous: all 17 members face the prospect of ruin and disaster unless they join together in a fiscal union. Exactly what the Euro’s opponents predicted and the Euro-enthusiasts perhaps secretly hoped for.
What will this Eurozone superstate look like, if indeed it gets off the ground? Again you don’t need a crystal ball to see the shape of things to come. It will be hugely wasteful of public money, highly bureaucratic, damaging to business and most of all grossly undemocratic.
The citizens of the Eurozone must already feel like they are helpless onlookers watching their political elites flounder in the crisis that they themselves created. They can now look forward to permanent Euro hell as the price for preventing economic meltdown.
From our website: A guide to Spain's autonomo system
Thursday, November 24, 2011
Spain tax form 210 deadline nears
Where did 2011 go? It was just a few weeks ago since I was enjoying a late Autumn swim in the Med and now we are hurtling towards Christmas. One consequence is that end of year deadline for Spanish non resident tax declarations is also approaching rapidly. This is the tax that all Spanish holiday home owners are supposed to pay.
I have written about this Spanish tax, often called modelo or form 210 tax after the forms you have to submit, many times so I will link to rather than bore you with the details: Spanish tax form 210
You have until 31.12.11 to get the form in. We offer a service where we do it for the taxpayer but this is only available up to the end of November.
I have had a few clients recently who have received letters from the Agencia Tributaria (Spanish tax office) asking to see tax returns going back to 2007 so they do check up. They have access to both local tax records and utility company computer systems so they know who has property in Spain and can cross-check to the returns they have received.
Thursday, November 17, 2011
Is there any point to the Spanish Elections?
Spain goes to the polls on Sunday to elect a new government and, yes, my question is facetious. Of course the elections are not pointless; no democratic election ever is. Apart from anything the people will get their chance to pass judgment on the record of Prime Minister Zapatero and his Socialists. Polls point to a big thumbs down and the election of the PP and their leader Mariano Rajoy who has tried and failed to win twice before.
But will it make much difference whatever happens? Spain is so close to the eye of the Eurozone storm that any new government will be powerless against the combined forces of the bond markets and the Eurozone. The PP are talking tough about bank reforms (which will surely send Spanish property prices down further – How the bailout could send Spanish property crashing) and labour market reform but it will be Germany and the ECB that decides Spain’s fate.
Look at the way that Berlusconi was finally forced from power. The Italians are well rid of him but it took Eurozone threats to do the job. It is notable that the new Italian government contains not a single elected minister.
Over in Greece the call for a referendum to get popular support for austerity measures was taken as a “breach of trust” by France and Germany; Papandreou was kicked out and Greece was effectively blackmailed into cancelling the vote.
I don’t subscribe to the theory that the Southern European countries are being drawn into a German super state but they certainly have lost control of their destiny. Either Spain and the others will be rescued by Germany or it will be forced to crash out of the Euro. It’s that simple and Sunday’s vote will not change a thing.
Latest article: Spanish holiday property UK and Spain tax considerations
Friday, November 11, 2011
The taxman wants some of your Spanish rental income
If you live in Britain but own a home abroad which you rent out you can’t fail to have seen the recent headlines like this one:
Taxman pursues Britons hiding holiday rent on overseas homes
Apparently the Revenue have set up a special unit to go after “the rich” (defined as those paying 50% tax i.e. earning over £150,000 pa) and one of their tasks is to recover £560 million in unpaid tax on foreign rental income.
With the stern promise that there is “no hiding place for tax cheats” they will look at things like land registers and letting adverts to catch people earning income from their properties but not declaring it.
I don’t know how worried I would be if I was renting out my holiday home and hadn’t declared the tax. These kind of campaigns have been launched before and you sometimes get the impression its more about the publicity and scary newspaper headlines than anything of real substance.
It also wasn’t abundantly clear whether the campaign is purely about the holiday homes of “the rich” or whether it is anyone with a holiday home that is under threat.
By coincidence I got a reminder of how brutal the Spanish taxman can be when it comes to foreigners (and locals to be fair) when it comes to undeclared rental income. I got an email from someone asking what they could do about €6,000 that the Spanish tax office (la Agencia Tributaria) had taken from his bank account, with no warning or even a letter to say they had done it.
It turned out he had two holiday homes and he let out one through an agency for several years without declaring a cent for tax purposes, not even completing the non resident tax return which surely every Spanish property owner knows about by now (if you don't see this post 'Tis the Season to Pay Spanish Taxes).
We have to assume that the rental agency were asked for their records by the hungry Spanish tax wolves. I have some sympathy for the guy but then again a lot of people do things properly and pay their taxes, so why should the non-payers get away with it?
If you want to be one of those who declare their income then here is a link to an article on our main website which explains what to do:
UK and Spanish tax implications of renting out a holiday home in Spain
Thursday, November 3, 2011
The Greek bail-out could send Spanish property crashing
Last week’s Eurozone bail-out involved some debt relief for Greece, more firepower for the EFSF (the bailout fund for other crisis countries) and a bank recapitalisation plan. Quite apart from the fact that most market observers think the plan is flawed and inadequate, the last bit that should have Spanish property owners worried.
In theory, topping up the capital buffers of the banks, particularly Spanish ones which are among Europe’s weakest, should be a positive development. The banks will be safer in the event of a new crisis and there should be less fear in the interbank market, a key feature of the original “credit crunch”.
There are two ways for a bank to boost its capital adequacy ratio: raising more capital or slimming down in size to make its existing capital look proportionally bigger.
Investors are rightly suspicious of banks so raising fresh capital by selling shares is not going to be easy. Higher capital ratios themselves imply lower profitability for the banks, making it harder for them to raise capital.
Perversely Government and EU officials are making it even harder for the banks to raise capital by demanding that they pay less in dividends and pull out of certain areas of business. The proposed financial transaction tax is also depressing bank share prices.
So banks are more likely to choose to go on a diet – desperately reduce in size to meet the new adequacy ratios without raising more capital. But how do banks reduce in size? There are a few ways, all of which are negative for growth and asset prices. They can sell non-core businesses like insurance or overseas subsidiaries. They can reduce the size of their loan portfolios by slashing the amounts they are willing to lend to households and businesses. They can also sell off other assets like the properties they have repossessed.
This is what Santander intends to do according to this article in the FT: Santander seeks to offload €3bn of Spanish property If all the Spanish lenders do the same then there will be a flood of new property on the market at knock-down prices. At the same banks will be trying to cut down on lending to businesses and homebuyers.
Throw in further austerity measures by the government and falling demand in most export markets and it’s hard to feel optimistic about the Spanish economy right now.
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
The quiet revolution in internet search
- Social factors - the rising influence of Facebook and Twitter with "shares" on Facebook being given particular weight
- Speed of the website
- Penalties for low quality content (e.g. content farms)
- The growing importance of location particularly in mobile search
- Use of Google's own data from searches, sites favourited (or blocked), paid search etc
- More sophisticated assessment of quality of page's content, structure, layout
Thursday, October 20, 2011
Now IS the time for a referendum on Europe
Over 100,000 signatures collected by volunteer groups and some brave Conservative MPs have forced a vote in Parliament over UK membership of the EU. All the main party leaders are forcing their MPs to vote against a referendum. Strange bed-fellows Cameron and Miliband are effectively saying the same thing: now’s not the time.
They are wrong. It’s the perfect time for the British people to be given a say on the EU. After all they have not been consulted for over 35 years. They have never had the chance to say whether they want to be part of what the EU has grown into since those seemingly innocuous origins of six countries in a Common Market.
Since then, with barely a nod to democratic process, the EU has grown into a 27 state behemoth that reaches into every legislative area, slaps down our courts and parliament, dictates who we can let in to the country and claims to speak for us in the world.
It also soaks up enormous sums of money, a net £12 billion of which comes from the UK taxpayer. As we wrestle with a massive fiscal deficit, now is most definitely the time to consider whether we can afford to pay this massive subsidy to our neighbours and debate what we get in return.
Many other economic issues are tied up with the EU from the burden of regulation on industry to the effects of unchecked immigration and the impact of EU schemes to undermine the City. Far from a referendum being a distraction in a time of economic crisis, it may be a pre-requisite of recovery. We should at least be able to debate the arguments rather than remain permanently shackled to the Euro project which has never looked so tarnished and dysfunctional.
Some argue that the sovereign debt crisis should be given priority at the moment and that a referendum is an irrelevance we could do without. On the contrary, the Euro crisis is the most compelling reason for a debate on continued membership. For one thing it has undermined one of the principal claims of the Euro-enthusiasts: that Europe does things better and we would be better off inside the club.
Also, however the crisis is resolved, it is sure to presage enormous changes in the way the euro area and EU are run. We deserve to be consulted before the UK government has to decide how to respond to the crucial choices that are bound to result.
Fundamentally the Euro crisis has exposed the dearth of democratic legitimacy in the rotten core of Europe. The political elites have pushed the project along hard and fast ignoring popular doubts and look what a mess has resulted. Just think of how the German electorate must think about their politicians’ promises about no bail outs and pooled debt.
With the sole exception of the Euro and one or two opt-outs, UK governments have gone along with the lot and have never put the issues to the people. Now is the time to remove that stain on our democratic heritage and have a referendum on this vital topic.
If you feel the same way you can make your voice heard (in a small way!) by signing the People's Pledge here.
On our website this week Spain is bringing back the wealth tax
Wednesday, October 12, 2011
10 reasons why stimulus is the problem not the solution
Last week I wrote that calls for more economic stimulus should be rejected because such measures demonstrably make things worse rather than deliver the boost they are supposed to. I listed 13 separate fiscal or monetary efforts made to stimulate the US economy since 1993 which have left it in a worse state than any time since the War.
Other countries which have run even bigger government deficits and run easy money policies for longer, like Greece and Japan, are in an even worse state.
Despite this dismal record policymakers (most recently the Bank of England with its QE3 programme) persist on trying to shove stimulus down our throats. Few commentators ever seem to question whether these “boosts” actually do more harm than good.
So, in no particular order, here are ten reasons why I think unfunded public spending, super-low interest rates and money printing are economically damaging and preventing recovery:
Sugar rush - stimulus only creates a temporary boost to demand at the cost of storing up demand-destroying effects for the future. One reason why most countries are suffering marked slow-downs now is that the effects of the 2008/9 stimulus packages have worn off.
Prolonging the agony – these false demand rushes do not just benefit healthy parts of the economy, they allow unhealthy, over-indebted and unsustainable parts to limp on: zombie banks, companies and, dare I say it, consumers.
Bad habits die hard – if you look at the way stimulus is supposed to work, it is in ways that are completely contrary to the long term interests of the countries being “helped”: encouraging consumption rather than investment; more borrowing rather than savings. Bank of England policy has been likened to “war on savers” which is just about the last thing the UK needs with a pensions timebomb ticking.
So now Inflation's a good thing? – the monetary authorities are expressly trying to create inflation with their policies and seem to be quite pleased with themselves when they create it. I am less sanguine. The BoE reckoned its first bout of QE generated up to 2% extra inflation. One reason why private sector demand is so depressed this year is high fuel prices which have been particularly affecting retailers. A lot of government spending is indexed to inflation so it makes the deficit reduction harder. Contrary to commonly stated opinion, high inflation doesn’t automatically erode debt. It may do this if wages rise faster than general prices but this has not been the case in recent years.
Leakage – A lot of the demand supposedly created by these stimulus measures leaks abroad in the form of increased imports or by encouraging investment capital to flee to emerging markets in search of better returns. The Chinese bubble that may be about to burst was made in Washington.
Moral hazard – The financial sector knows that every time the markets weaken, the fiscal and monetary taps will be turned on and they will be rescued. This has been done so many times - the term that describes the phenomenon, the Greenspan Put, was coined as long ago as 1987 – that the financial sector has a strong incentive to take ever greater risks because the downside is so limited. Stimulus is one of the main reasons for the “too big to fail” phenomenon.
Confidence trick – QE, fiscal stimulus and lower interest rates are all supposed to encourage business investment, which creates jobs and thus more consumer spending and thus more investment in a virtuous cycle. But if you were in charge of a business, would stimulus policy incentivise you to invest for the long term? Maybe a decade or so go but these kinds of measures have been tried and have failed so many times now that they are counterproductive and cause cynicism and confusion in the business community.
Bucking the market – True free-market believers are a dying breed these days. How else do you explain the lack of criticism, even from supposedly right wing politicians, for probably the biggest and most damaging example of state interference there is - central banks holding down interest rates below their market level. Interest rates are a price mechanism like any other: if you set the price of credit too low you will upset the delicate balance between saving and investing, investment now and consumption later. See this article to understand the theory of intertemporal misallocation which explains a lot of the current crisis: What Spanish Pigs Can Tell Us About Economics
Pensions vandalism – One common aim of stimulus measures of the QE variety is to lower bond yields which also has some nasty side effects for pension funds and retirees buying annuities. Is it really going to help our companies to have to increase the contributions to their pension funds? Will it help demand to impoverish pensioners? See this article from the telegraph There’s Another Fine Mess QE Has Got Us Into
Big Spenders – if you believe that governments spend (and then tax and borrow) too much, then take a look at stimulus as one of the main reasons for this. Look at Spain where low interest rates over-stimulated the economy, falsely inflating GDP and tax revenues thus encouraging the government to spend too much. And when the stimulus wears off, governments have a great excuse to spend and borrow even more to “support” the economy. One Nobel prize-winning idiot even claimed that an imaginary war against aliens would be a good thing because it would encourage the US government to spend even more trillions it didn’t have – Paul Krugman: An Alien Invasion Could Fix the Economy
OK, so this is a mish-mash of ideas and I haven't tried to distinguish between the different types of stimulus. Maybe different countries which might benefit from certain measures at particular times. But in general I believe that governments would be better to concentrate on balancing their budgets, cutting taxes and regulation and leave the economy, including interest rates, to the markets.
From our website: guide to Spain's Autonomo (self employed) system
Tuesday, October 4, 2011
It's a case of Good News, Bad News for Spain
Friday, September 30, 2011
Is Ryanair's latest move so bad?
Sunday, September 18, 2011
Stimulus is the problem not the solution
Zapatero's parting shot at the rich
Sunday, September 11, 2011
Can a tax cut breathe life into the Spanish property market?
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
Spain targets rich taxpayers
Monday, August 22, 2011
Spain slams the door on Romanian immigrants
While I think it is a classic case of “too little too late” I think Spain is right to seek to limit the inflow of Romanian jobseekers. By all accounts the benefit system is very sketchy and ungenerous in Romania and wages for those in work very low. That explains why so many are prepared to travel throughout Europe in search of a better deal but it is hardly fair to local jobseekers in countries where jobs are scarce anyway. And Spain has no right to send back any surplus migrant workers so as their economy has soured they have been left with hundreds of thousands of foreigners on benefits at a time when they are under massive pressure to reduce state spending.
As for Britain similar questions have been asked for years about how this free movement of labour through the EU is supposed to work when some countries have much more generous welfare systems and more open labour markets than others. The result for the UK has been that almost all jobs created in the last decade have gone to foreigners, mainly Eastern Europeans, and there has been a massive strain on public services and housing.
But the answer isn’t to blame immigrants or necessarily to place limits on their numbers particularly when they are often taking up jobs that locals will not do. Root and branch reform of the benefits system should come first, particularly the areas that are most abused and reduce the willingness of people to work, like housing benefit and incapacity benefits.
Monday, August 15, 2011
How to ease the pain of rising energy prices
The last few years have been very unkind financially to anyone with savings in building societies or bank deposits. With rates slashed to the 2-3% mark (before tax) the value of these savings has steadily declined as inflation has risen. This mix of rock bottom returns and high inflation is set to continue for years.
Monday, August 8, 2011
Can you avoid Ryanair debit card charges?
I asked in my last post (Ryanair's new policy) if anybody had a way round the handling fees they charge on debit and credit card transactions. To recap these are the "sting in the tail" - the £6 fees they charge when you get to the end of the booking process and which are payable for each and every flight. So when I am booking a flight to an from Spain with my kids the charge is £48 for the privilege of paying for the flights I have booked.
Monday, August 1, 2011
Ryanair's new policy (it's good for once)
We’ve all been wound up by Ryanair over the years haven’t we? The luggage Nazis who patrol the queues looking for oversized hand-luggage, the unseemly stampedes for a seat, the grinning mug of Michael O’Leary as he announces some other way of making his customers suffer and those enticing low fares that balloon when the extras start totting up.
A typical example: Ryanair criticised over New Year advert. Ryanair ads suggested we all spend New Year’s Eve celebrating in Dublin using their super low £7 fares. Just one problem with that – the fares were for January and February so the earliest a reveller could arrive in Dublin would be as the clearing up began.
But now for something completely different. In praise of Ryanair! They now quote their fares with taxes and charges included. There are a few extras like the “EU 261 levy” and an online check-in fee but basically a flight of £50 costs more or less £50. Actually there is the other hidden charge which is a complete wind-up – the charge for using a credit or debit card which multiplies with every flight you book and bears no relation to Ryanair’s actual transaction costs. But all the airlines do that don’t they (and some other online merchants).
I use a Ryanair a lot and there are good reasons – they are in my experience less prone to delays than other airlines and, even when all the extras are added in, they are often the cheapest. One thing I have noticed is that it does NOT always pay to book a long way in advance. It is often the case that waiting until nearer the time (but not too near) is cheaper. I am also told that it is also wise to delete your cookies that track your previous searches and also affect the prices you are quoted (anyone know if that’s true?).
A final plus point for Ryanair – they make it free to print out your own boarding pass and skip check-in at the airport. Judging by some of the long and slow-moving queues I have seen at Malaga and London recently , that is a blessing.
From our website this week: Guide to Spanish Double Tax Treaty